TOPIC 1: Do the 2006 and 2008 elections strengthen or weaken Fiorina's argument for sorting? Be sure to cite exit poll data (or a similar source) as you build your case.
Before starting it is important to understand that Fiorina flip flops a great amount in his writing. It is in the summary: not a polarized electorate that his true beliefs finally come out. This is my interpretation of what he has written.
First I must reiterate a few points that were in the readings for this week. First, partisan polarization is not the same as popular polarization according to Fiorina. The next thing that must be understood is that Fiorina is saying that in recent times people are voting more “correctly” or more in line with the party that represents their views and ideologies. Third, the idea that the grey area, or independent area is shrinking is false. It is true, however, according to Fiorina, that the Democrats and Republicans are more clearly sorted. Finally, the difference between the two sides has grown, but only slightly.
I will start with the later first. When looking at the exit polls from 2006 and 2008 one will notice that Fiorina is correct in most instances for 2006 outside of race and age which are a bit larger than the rest. For the rest of the categories there is a divide but it is small as far as percentage points are concerned. In 2008 the polls show a huge divide, and change, in a few areas. Black voters, first time voters, Jewish voters, and voters in big cities have historically voted Democratic. This was the case in 2008, but the dived was tremendous. Blacks voted 95% to 4% Democratic, first time voters voted 63% to 35% Democratic, Jewish people voted 78% to 21% Democratic, and those in big cities voted 70% to 20% democratic. These are all very large differences. So when Fiorina says that “the absolute differences between Democrats and Republicans are relatively small…” he is wrong in this case. The differences seem to be growing with each recent election.
The argument for sorting, which Fiorina doesn't back, does seem to be holding true. Self identified Democrats voted for Democrats and self identified Republicans for Republicans. Issues hat are associated with each party also held true. People that are pro-choice, anti-war, ect.. voted Democratic. The same is true on the Republican side. Polarization at its best, no?
Now I would not say that the middle area or “grey are” in-between parties has disappeared, but it may be slowly shrinking. This may be due to mobilization of parties or the feeling that your vote will not count unless you choose one of the major parties. Regardless of why this is happening, it seems that it is.
Are people voting more correctly? That is to say, more in line with the party that represents their views. The answer is yes. This is due to “younger voters are entering the party consistent with their views…” This may have something to do with more of the population receiving higher levels of education. We, the young voters are better able to decide which party represents us the best. I do not, however, agree with the second portion of that statement, “and to some extent people are changing their views to make them consistent with their party affiliation.”
All in all Fiorina is partially correct. Sorting does seem to be happening in some areas. A polarization is happening is some areas. This may be due to the historical context of the most recent election dealing with gender and race. In other areas he is correct, polarization is not happening. Depending on what area you assign what weights will determine your final opinion on polarization, or sorting. I believe that race, age, and where you live are all large enough and strong enough categories to constitute a belief that polarization is happening.
Sources
Fiorina, Morris P. Culture war? the myth of a polarized America. New York: Pearson Education, 2005.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html
